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| Titel |
Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system – potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Wagner, A.-M. Blechschmidt, I. Bouarar, E.-G. Brunke, C. Clerbaux, M. Cupeiro, P. Cristofanelli, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, H. Flentje, M. George, S. Gilge, A. Hilboll, A. Inness, J. Kapsomenakis, A. Richter, L. Ries, W. Spangl, O. Stein, R. Weller, C. Zerefos |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 24 ; Nr. 15, no. 24 (2015-12-18), S.14005-14030 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120236
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-14005-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project
represents
the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
(http://www.copernicus.eu/), which became fully operational during
2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and
reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric
composition fields. It is the only assimilation system worldwide that is
operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and
aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system
to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases covering the period
between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on carbon monoxide
(CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) surface observations
from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, the O3 surface
observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP)
and, furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns, as well as CO total columns,
derived from satellite sensors. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing
reactive gas concentrations with consistent quality; however, with a
seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations – for
northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear
during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the
year, with monthly modified normalised mean biases (MNMBs) ranging between
−30 and 30 % at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from
difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies
in the model's dry deposition parameterisation. Observed tropospheric columns
of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but
are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when
anthropogenic emissions are at their highest level, especially over the US,
Europe and Asia. Monthly MNMBs of the satellite data evaluation range from
values between −110 and 40 % for NO2 and at most −20 % for
CO, over the investigated regions. The underestimation is likely to result
from a combination of errors concerning the dry deposition parameterisation
and certain limitations in the current emission inventories, together with an
insufficiently established seasonality in the emissions. |
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