 |
| Titel |
Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009 |
| VerfasserIn |
S. T. Turnock, D. V. Spracklen, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, P. M. Forster, J. Haywood, C. E. Johnson, M. Dalvi, N. Bellouin, A. Sanchez-Lorenzo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1680-7316
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 16 ; Nr. 15, no. 16 (2015-08-25), S.9477-9500 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119991
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-9477-2015.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions
have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution
control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols
to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained,
particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here
we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period
1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol
mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998),
PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size
distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over
Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised
mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF
= −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF
= −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF
= −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in
aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with
observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of
−42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of
−11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated
aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed
SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during
1990–2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol
radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where
ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol
radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by
> 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in
anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|