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| Titel |
Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic |
| VerfasserIn |
K. M. Hansen, J. H. Christensen, C. Geels, J. D. Silver, J. Brandt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 11 ; Nr. 15, no. 11 (2015-06-15), S.6549-6559 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119815
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-6549-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how
projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13
persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental
fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with
present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial
environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with
initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation.
Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing
the present (1990–2000) and future (2090–2100) climate conditions.
DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation
model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the
applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was
predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end
of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was
predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs
was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the
congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results
of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission
history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic
environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the
environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate
scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the
atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree
counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean
temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the
physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have
predicted that the effect of a changed climate on the transport of POPs to
the Arctic is moderate relative to the effect of proposed changes in
emissions, which is confirmed in this study. However, the model studies do
not agree on whether climate change acts to reduce or increase environmental
concentrations of POPs in the Arctic, and further work is needed to resolve
this matter. |
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