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| Titel |
Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations |
| VerfasserIn |
A. J. Stevens, D. Clarke, R. J. Nicholls, M. P. Wadey |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 6 ; Nr. 15, no. 6 (2015-06-15), S.1215-1229 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119531
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1215-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This
requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and
other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are
usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation.
This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of
historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in
the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise.
In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal
evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses
readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and
sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two
neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south
coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of
increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level
rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant
driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but
climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing
flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider
vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood
exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk.
The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea
level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and
will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers. |
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