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| Titel |
On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation |
| VerfasserIn |
J. N. Thomas, F. Masci, J. J. Love |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 5 ; Nr. 15, no. 5 (2015-05-27), S.1061-1068 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119479
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1061-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary
linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We
examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted
the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a
satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over
the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years
of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud
formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical
relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and
earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud
formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which
Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake,
appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind
flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how
linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time
of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their
predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of
the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed
to predict any earthquakes. |
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