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| Titel |
Development towards a global operational aerosol consensus: basic climatological characteristics of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME) |
| VerfasserIn |
W. R. Sessions, J. S. Reid, A. Benedetti, P. R. Colarco, A. da Silva, S. Lu, T. Sekiyama, T. Y. Tanaka, J. M. Baldasano, S. Basart, M. E. Brooks, T. F. Eck, M. Iredell, J. A. Hansen, O. C. Jorba, H.-M. H. Juang, P. Lynch, J.-J. Morcrette, S. Moorthi, J. Mulcahy, Y. Pradhan, M. Razinger, C. B. Sampson, J. Wang, D. L. Westphal |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2015-01-13), S.335-362 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119301
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-335-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Here we present the first steps in developing a global
multi-model aerosol forecasting ensemble intended for eventual operational
and basic research use. Drawing from members of the International
Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) latest generation of
quasi-operational aerosol models, 5-day aerosol
optical thickness (AOT) forecasts are analyzed for
December 2011 through November 2012 from four institutions: European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA
Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and Naval Research Lab/Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
Oceanography Center (NRL/FNMOC). For dust, we also include the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration-National Geospatial Advisory Committee (NOAA NGAC) product in our
analysis. The Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and UK Met Office dust
products have also recently become members of ICAP, but have insufficient
data to be included in this analysis period. A simple consensus ensemble of
member and mean AOT fields for modal species (e.g., fine and coarse mode,
and a separate dust ensemble) is used to create the ICAP Multi-Model
Ensemble (ICAP-MME). The ICAP-MME is run daily at 00:00 UTC for 6-hourly forecasts
out to 120 h. Basing metrics on comparisons to 21 regionally
representative Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites, all models generally
captured the basic aerosol features of the globe. However, there is an
overall AOT low bias among models, particularly for high AOT events. Biomass
burning regions have the most diversity in seasonal average AOT. The
Southern Ocean, though low in AOT, nevertheless also has high diversity.
With regard to root mean square error (RMSE), as expected the ICAP-MME placed first
over all models worldwide, and was typically first or second in ranking
against all models at individual sites. These results are encouraging; furthermore, as
more global operational aerosol models come online, we expect their
inclusion in a robust operational multi-model ensemble will provide valuable
aerosol forecasting guidance. |
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