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| Titel |
A scoring test on probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Albarello, L. Peruzza, V. D'Amico |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2015-01-29), S.171-186 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119280
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-171-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard represent a basic element for
seismic risk reduction strategies and they are a key element of seismic
regulation. Thus, it is important to select the most effective estimates
among the available ones. An empirical scoring strategy is described here
and is applied to a number of time-independent hazard estimates available in
Italy both at national and regional scale. The scoring test is based on the
comparison of outcomes provided by available computational models at a
number of accelerometric sites where observations are available for 25
years. This comparison also allows identifying computational models that,
providing outcomes that are in contrast with observations, should thus be
discarded. The analysis shows that most of the hazard estimates proposed for
Italy are not in contrast with observations and some computational models
perform significantly better than others do. Furthermore, one can see that,
at least locally, older estimates can perform better than the most recent
ones. Finally, since the same computational model can perform differently
depending on the region considered and on average return time of concern, no
single model can be considered as the best-performing one. This implies
that, moving along the hazard curve, the most suitable model should be selected by considering
the specific problem of concern. |
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