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| Titel |
Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Vogel, J. Förstner, B. Vogel, T. Hanisch, B. Mühr, U. Schättler, T. Schad |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 15 ; Nr. 14, no. 15 (2014-08-07), S.7837-7845 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118926
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-14-7837-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was
used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the
Eyjafjallajökull. As an operational forecast was launched every 6
hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Sensitivity runs show the
ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical
resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data
allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. After this
calibration an independent comparison of the simulated number concentration
of 3 μm particles and observations at Hohenpeißenberg gives a
correlation coefficient of 0.79. However, this agreement could only be
reached after additional modifications of the emissions. Based on the time
lagged ensemble the conditional probability of violation of a certain
threshold is calculated. Improving the ensemble technique used in our study
such probabilities could become valuable information for the forecasters
advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace. |
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