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| Titel |
Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany |
| VerfasserIn |
F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, O. Burghoff, W. Willems, H. Österle, M. Büchner, Z. Kundzewicz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 12 ; Nr. 14, no. 12 (2014-12-02), S.3151-3168 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118794
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-3151-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate
change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated
and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal
was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and
damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario
uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized
for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM)
that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges,
was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more
than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted
to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency
statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been
linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions
provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on
buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the
specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood
related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer,
climate. |
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