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| Titel |
Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling |
| VerfasserIn |
S. A. Fraser, N. J. Wood, D. M. Johnston, G. S. Leonard, P. D. Greening, T. Rossetto |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2014-11-17), S.2975-2991 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118748
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2975-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce
life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling
provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous
models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel
speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate
departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population.
Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed
travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing
anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated
for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay,
New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation
potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to
evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds
approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation
potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant
contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost
modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling,
and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it
requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations. |
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