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| Titel |
Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Federico, E. Avolio, M. Petracca, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, D. Casella, S. Dietrich |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2014-11-07), S.2933-2950 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118746
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2933-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This paper shows the results of a tailored version of a previously published
methodology, designed to simulate lightning activity, implemented into the
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS).
The method gives the flash density at the resolution of the RAMS grid scale
allowing for a detailed analysis of the evolution of simulated lightning
activity.
The system is applied in detail to two case studies occurred over the Lazio
Region, in Central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning
activity detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to two thunderstorms
of different intensity which occurred, respectively, on 20 October 2011 and on 15
October 2012.
The number of flashes simulated (observed) over Lazio is 19435 (16231) for
the first case and 7012 (4820) for the second case, and the model correctly
reproduces the larger number of flashes that characterized the 20 October
2011 event compared to the 15 October 2012 event.
There are, however, errors in timing and positioning of the convection,
whose magnitude depends on the case study, which mirrors in timing and
positioning errors of the lightning distribution. For the 20 October 2011
case study, spatial errors are of the order of a few tens of kilometres and
the timing of the event is correctly simulated. For the 15 October 2012 case
study, the spatial error in the positioning of the convection is of the
order of 100 km and the event has a longer duration in the simulation than
in the reality.
To assess objectively the performance of the methodology, standard scores
are presented for four additional case studies. Scores show the ability of
the methodology to simulate the daily lightning activity for different
spatial scales and for two different minimum thresholds of flash number
density. The performance decreases at finer spatial scales and for higher
thresholds.
The comparison of simulated and observed lighting activity is an immediate
and powerful tool to assess the model ability to reproduce the intensity and
the evolution of the convection. This shows the importance of using
computationally efficient lightning schemes, such as the one described in
this paper, in forecast models. |
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