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| Titel |
Reassessing flood frequency for the Sussex Ouse, Lewes: the inclusion of historical flood information since AD 1650 |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Macdonald, T. R. Kjeldsen, I. Prosdocimi, H. Sangster |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 10 ; Nr. 14, no. 10 (2014-10-30), S.2817-2828 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118717
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2817-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The application of historical flood information as a tool for augmenting
instrumental flood data is increasingly recognised as a valuable tool. Most
previous studies have focused on large catchments with historic settlements,
this paper applies the approach to the smaller lowland system of the Sussex
Ouse in southeast England. The reassessment of flood risk on the Sussex Ouse
is pertinent in light of the severe flooding in October 2000 and heightened
concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood
level readings from 1960 and accounts detailing past flood events within the
catchment are compiled back to ca. 1750. This extended flood record provides
an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a timescale not
normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates
flood frequency at Lewes on the Sussex Ouse downstream of the confluence of
the Sussex Ouse and River Uck. The paper considers the strengths and
weaknesses in estimates resulting from contrasting methods of analysis and
their corresponding data: (i) single site analysis of gauged annual maxima;
(ii) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical
peaks of estimated magnitude; (iii) combined analysis of systematic annual
maxima augmented with historical peaks of estimated magnitude exceeding a
known threshold, and (iv) sensitivity analysis including only the very
largest historical flood events. Use of the historical information was found
to yield much tighter confidence intervals of risk estimates, with
uncertainty reduced by up to 40% for the 100-year return frequency event
when historical information was added to the gauged data. |
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