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| Titel |
Uncertainty in PSHA related to the parametrization of historical intensity data |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Mucciarelli |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 10 ; Nr. 14, no. 10 (2014-10-13), S.2761-2765 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118712
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2761-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In recent times a great deal of research aimed to reduce of
uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Most attention
was paid to the role of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs; see, e.g.,
Strasser et al., 2009), while no studies were devoted to a possible larger
source of uncertainties: the historical catalogues of earthquakes.
In areas where historical catalogues provide a record many centuries long and
surface geology does not permit us to obtain complete catalogues of
seismogenic faults at the moment, their use is unavoidable for estimating seismicity rates
required for PSHA. Their use is also gaining popularity as an independent
tool for the estimation of PSHA (D'Amico and Albarello, 2008) and for validation purposes (Stirling and Petersen, 2006; Mucciarelli et al.,
2008).
After proposing an alternative parametrization of historical
macroseismic intensity, this paper is devoted to discussing what the real impact of starting uncertainties in intensities
on the final uncertainties in PSHA is. |
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