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| Titel |
Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Moncoulon, D. Labat, J. Ardon, E. Leblois, T. Onfroy, C. Poulard, S. Aji, A. Rémy, A. Quantin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 9 ; Nr. 14, no. 9 (2014-09-17), S.2469-2485 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118664
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2469-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance
market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all
possible (but which have not yet occurred) flood situations with hazard and
damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a
1995–2010 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded
areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic
estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic
event set. To take into account at least 90 % of the insured flood losses,
the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large
catchments) with the surface runoff, due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of
the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of the CCR (Caisse Centrale de
Reassurance) claim database have shown that approximately 45 % of the
insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45 % outside.
Another 10 % is due to sea surge floods and groundwater rise. In this
approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a
single flood loss distribution: a generation of fictive river flows based on
the historical records of the river gauge network and a generation of fictive
rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958–2010
Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the
probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This
hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the
national scale for an insurance company (Macif) and to generate flood areas
associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow
and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison
with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens). |
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