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| Titel |
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, A. Höskuldsson |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2014-08-29), S.2289-2312 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118615
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2289-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We perform a multi-scale impact assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal
from explosive volcanic activity in Iceland. A companion paper (Biass et al.,
2014; "A multi-scale risk assessment of tephra fallout and airborne
concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part I: hazard
assessment") introduces a multi-scale probabilistic assessment of tephra
hazard based on selected eruptive scenarios at four Icelandic volcanoes (Hekla,
Askja, Eyjafjallajökull and Katla) and presents probabilistic hazard maps
for tephra accumulation in Iceland and tephra dispersal across Europe. Here,
we present the associated vulnerability and impact assessment that describes
the importance of single features at national and European levels and
considers several vulnerability indicators for tephra dispersal and
deposition. At the national scale, we focus on physical, systemic and economic
vulnerability of Iceland to tephra fallout, whereas at the European scale we
focus on the systemic vulnerability of the air traffic system to tephra
dispersal. This is the first vulnerability and impact assessment analysis of
this type and, although it does not include all the aspects of physical and
systemic vulnerability, it allows for identifying areas on which further specific
analysis should be performed. Results include vulnerability maps for Iceland
and European airspace and allow for the qualitative identification of the
impacts at both scales in the case of an eruption occurring. Maps produced at
the national scale show that tephra accumulation associated with all eruptive
scenarios considered can disrupt the main electricity network, in particular in
relation to an eruption of Askja. Results also show that several power plants
would be affected if an eruption occurred at Hekla, Askja or Katla, causing a substantial systemic impact due to their
importance for the Icelandic economy. Moreover, the Askja and Katla eruptive
scenarios considered could have substantial impacts on agricultural
activities (crops and pastures). At the European scale, eruptive scenarios at
Askja and Katla are likely to affect European airspace, having
substantial impacts, in particular, in the Keflavík and London flight
information regions (FIRs), but also at FIRs above France, Germany and
Scandinavia. Impacts would be particularly intense in the case of long-lasting
activity at Katla. The occurrence of eruptive scenarios at Hekla is likely to produce high impacts at Keflavík FIR and London FIRs,
and, in the case of higher magnitude, can also impact France's FIRs. Results could
support land use and emergency planning at the national level and risk management
strategies of the European air traffic system. Although we focus on Iceland,
the proposed methodology could be applied to other active volcanic areas,
enhancing the long-term tephra risk management. Moreover, the outcomes of
this work pose the basis for quantitative analyses of expected impacts and
their integration in a multi-risk framework. |
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