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| Titel |
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, A. Höskuldsson |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2014-08-29), S.2265-2287 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118614
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2265-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management
of future volcanic eruptions in Iceland, we developed a new scenario-based approach to
assess the hazard associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at
various scales and for multiple sources. The target volcanoes are Hekla,
Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected either for their high
probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. By coupling
tephrostratigraphic studies, probabilistic techniques and modelling, we
developed comprehensive eruption scenarios for both short- and long-lasting
eruptions and compiled hazard maps for tephra ground deposition at a national
scale and air concentration at a European scale using the TEPHRA2 and FALL3D
models, respectively. New algorithms for the identification of realistic sets
of eruptive source parameters are investigated, which assist the generation
of probability density functions of eruption source parameters for the
selected scenarios. Aggregation processes were accounted for using various
empirical models. Outcomes, i.e. probabilities conditioned to the occurrence of an eruption,
help the assessment and comparison of hazard levels at
different scales. For example, at a national scale Askja has a 5–10%
probability of blanketing the easternmost half of the country with a tephra
accumulation of at least 1 kg m−2. At a continental scale, Katla
has a 5–10% probability of producing ash clouds with concentrations of
2 mg m−3 over the UK, Scandinavia and northern Europe with a mean
arrival time of 48–72 h and a mean persistence time of 6–18 h. In a
companion paper, Scaini et al. (2014) present a vulnerability assessment for
Iceland to ground deposition of tephra and for the European air traffic to
airborne ash which, combined with the outcomes of the present paper,
constitute one of the first comprehensive multi-scale risk assessment associated with
tephra dispersal and sedimentation. |
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