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| Titel |
Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Hamdi, L. Bardet, C.-M. Duluc, V. Rebour |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2014-08-13), S.2053-2067 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118596
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2053-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In France, nuclear facilities were designed around very low probabilities of
failure. Nevertheless, some extreme climatic events have given rise to
exceptional observed surges (outliers) much larger than other observations,
and have clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water
levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the
present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches to extreme
value analysis, including the annual maxima (AM), the peaks-over-threshold
(POT) and the r-largest order statistics (r-LOS). These methods are
illustrated in a real analysis case study. All data sets were screened for
outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity
of time series were used. The shape and scale parameter stability plots, the
mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of
return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the
POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on
(i) the uncertainty degrees, (ii) the adequacy criteria and tests, and
(iii) the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods
have reduced the uncertainty on the distribution parameters and return level
estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500-year return
levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also
shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fit at the right
tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the
use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the
representativeness of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical
relevance, not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications
in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal
planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental
conditions, with an appropriate level of risk. |
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