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| Titel |
The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Hu, J. Wang, J. Pan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2014-08-06), S.1985-1997 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118591
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1985-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash/stroke density was
derived from the lightning location finder (LLF) data recorded between 2007
and 2011. The vulnerability of land surfaces was then assessed from the
classification of the study areas into buildings, outdoor areas under the
building canopy and open-field areas, which makes it convenient to deduce the
location factor and confirm the protective capability. Subsequently, the
potential number of dangerous lightning events at a location could be
estimated from the product of the CG stroke density and the location's
vulnerability. Although the human beings and all their material properties
are identically exposed to lightning, the lightning casualty risk and
property loss risk was assessed respectively due to their vulnerability
discrepancy. Our analysis of the CG flash density in Beijing revealed that
the valley of JuMaHe to the southwest, the ChangPing–ShunYi zone downwind of
the Beijing metropolis, and the mountainous PingGu–MiYun zone near the coast
are the most active lightning areas, with densities greater than
1.5 flashes km−2 year−1. Moreover, the mountainous
northeastern, northern, and northwestern rural areas are relatively more
vulnerable to lightning because the high-elevation terrain attracts lightning
and there is little protection. In contrast, lightning incidents by induced
lightning are most likely to occur in densely populated urban areas, and the
property damage caused by lightning here is more extensive than that in
suburban and rural areas. However, casualty incidents caused by direct
lightning strokes seldom occur in urban areas. On the other hand, the
simulation based on the lightning risk assessment model (LRAM) demonstrates
that the casualty risk is higher in rural areas, whereas the property loss
risk is higher in urban areas, and this conclusion is also supported by the
historical casualty and damage reports. |
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