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| Titel |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in seismic risk assessments on the example of Cologne, Germany |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Tyagunov, M. Pittore, M. Wieland, S. Parolai, D. Bindi, K. Fleming, J. Zschau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-27), S.1625-1640 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118509
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1625-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with different sources
and components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) are present at each
step of seismic risk assessments. All individual sources of uncertainty
contribute to the total uncertainty, which might be very high and, within
the decision-making context, may therefore lead to either very conservative
and expensive decisions or the perception of considerable risk. When
anatomizing the structure of the total uncertainty, it is therefore
important to propagate the different individual uncertainties through the
computational chain and to quantify their contribution to the total value of
risk. The present study analyses different uncertainties associated with the
hazard, vulnerability and loss components by the use of logic trees. The
emphasis is on the analysis of epistemic uncertainties, which represent the
reducible part of the total uncertainty, including a sensitivity analysis of
the resulting seismic risk assessments with regard to the different
uncertainty sources. This investigation, being a part of the EU FP7 project
MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe), is
carried out for the example of, and with reference to, the conditions of the
city of Cologne, Germany, which is one of the MATRIX test cases. At the same
time, this particular study does not aim to revise nor to refine the hazard
and risk level for Cologne; it is rather to show how large are the existing
uncertainties and how they can influence seismic risk estimates, especially
in less well-studied areas, if hazard and risk models adapted from other
regions are used. |
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