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| Titel |
Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains |
| VerfasserIn |
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, H. Apel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-23), S.1579-1589 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118505
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1579-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived
by applying model chains consisting of the following elements:
"emission scenario – global climate model – downscaling, possibly
including bias correction – hydrological model – flood frequency
analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due
to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to
represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains
requires major efforts, and their complexity is high.
We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is
based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario – global
climate model – non-stationary flood frequency model". The
underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon
and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives
a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of
flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain
precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from
large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate
models. The simplicity of the monsoon–flood link allows deriving
large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We
conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the
typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between
climate and floods is found. |
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