 |
| Titel |
Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Kostopoulou, C. Giannakopoulos, M. Hatzaki, A. Karali, P. Hadjinicolaou, J. Lelieveld  , M. A. Lange |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-23), S.1565-1577 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118504
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1565-2014.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes
are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates
for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle
East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme
climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while
precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital
socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the
recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial
distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong
increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey
and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches
0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while
warming is expected to be strongest in
summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in
annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and
0.6 °C decade−1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate
statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual
sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over
the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive
and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend
patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of
approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle
Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming
(0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying
trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st
century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year−1,
while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the
high-elevation areas by 15 days year−1. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|