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| Titel |
Seasonal predictability of the 2010 Russian heat wave |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Katsafados, A. Papadopoulos, G. Varlas, E. Papadopoulou, E. Mavromatidis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-18), S.1531-1542 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118501
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1531-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The atmospheric blocking over eastern Europe and western Russia that
prevailed during July and August of 2010 led to the development of a
devastating Russian heat wave. Therefore the question of whether the event
was predictable or not is highly important. The principal aim of this study
is to examine the predictability of this high-impact atmospheric event on a
seasonal timescale. To this end, a set of dynamical seasonal simulations have
been carried out using an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). The
impact of various model initializations on the predictability of this
large-scale event and its sensitivity to the initial conditions has been also
investigated. The ensemble seasonal simulations are based on a modified
version of the lagged-average forecast method using different lead-time
initializations of the model. The results indicated that only a few
individual members reproduced the main features of the blocking system 3
months ahead. Most members missed the phase space and the propagation of the
system, setting limitations in the predictability of the event. |
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