 |
| Titel |
The extreme runoff index for flood early warning in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Alfieri, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-17), S.1505-1515 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118499
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1505-2014.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
Systems for the early detection of floods over continental and global domains
have a key role in providing a quick overview of areas at risk, raise the
awareness and prompt higher detail analyses as the events approach. However,
the reliability of these systems is prone to spatial inhomogeneity, depending
on the quality of the underlying input data and local calibration.
This work proposes a simple approach for flood early warning based on
ensemble numerical predictions of surface runoff provided by weather
forecasting centers. The system is based on a novel indicator, referred to as
an extreme runoff index (ERI), which is calculated from the input data
through a statistical analysis. It is designed for use in large or poorly
gauged domains, as no local knowledge or in situ observations are needed for
its setup. Daily runs over 32 months are evaluated against calibrated
hydrological simulations for all of Europe. Results show skillful flood early
warning capabilities up to a 10-day lead time. A dedicated analysis is
performed to investigate the optimal timing of forecasts to maximize the
detection of extreme events. A case study for the central European floods of
June 2013 is presented and forecasts are compared to the output of a
hydro-meteorological ensemble model. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|