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| Titel |
Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012 |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Venäläinen, N. Korhonen, O. Hyvärinen, N. Koutsias, F. Xystrakis, I. R. Urbieta, J. M. Moreno |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-11), S.1477-1490 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118497
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1477-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how
such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing
climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two
reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal
variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we
used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to
examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious
trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999),
whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows
an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the
99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level
in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the
current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current
fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is
multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can
contribute to it, either positively or negatively. |
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