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| Titel |
Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Xie, N. Li, J.-D. Wu, X.-L. Hao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 4 ; Nr. 14, no. 4 (2014-04-08), S.757-772 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118383
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-757-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Disaster damages have negative
effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive
effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and
recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities.
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it
can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and
furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks
into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced
on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the
capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is
formulated according to
available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is
set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a
case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed:
S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction
investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment).
S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1
and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as
economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction,
respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer
to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is
roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate
between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that
should take another four years to achieve under S2. |
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