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| Titel |
Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Müller, M. Kaspar |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 2 ; Nr. 14, no. 2 (2014-02-28), S.473-483 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118287
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| After an overview of existing methods, we present a novel method of
"event-adjusted" evaluation of extremeness of weather and climate events.
It is based on optimization of both the considered area and the time
duration for every event. The method consists of three steps: (i) estimation
of return periods of a representative variable at individual sites,
performed separately for various time windows; (ii) spatial interpolation of
the point return period data; and (iii) searching the area and the time
window in which the extremeness of the event was maximum. The extremeness is
quantified as the common logarithm of the spatial geometric mean of the
return periods multiplied by the radius of a circle of the same area as the
one over which the geometric mean is taken. The maximum product is referred
to as the weather extremity index (WEI). Two precipitation events, which
affected the Czech Republic in May and in August 2010, were evaluated by the
WEI for illustration. Validation of the method on sufficiently long data
series is still needed. Moreover, the WEI is generally applicable regardless
of the studied phenomenon (heavy rains, heat waves, windstorms, etc.). This
makes it possible to study various weather and climate extremes from the
viewpoint of possible recent and future changes in their frequency, seasonal
distribution, and circulation conditions accompanying them. |
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