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| Titel |
Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Karali, M. Hatzaki, C. Giannakopoulos, A. Roussos, G. Xanthopoulos, V. Tenentes |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 1 ; Nr. 14, no. 1 (2014-01-23), S.143-153 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118237
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-143-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece,
indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of
season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and
intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather
Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire
risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a
meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide,
including the Mediterranean Basin, to estimate fire danger in a generalised
fuel type based solely on weather observations. Here, an evaluation of the
index is initially performed for the Greek territory using fire observations
that cover a 15 yr period. Three critical fire risk threshold values are
established for the area of Greece based on daily mean meteorological data:
FWI = 15, FWI = 30 and FWI = 45, increasing from the northwest to the
southeast. Subsequently, a regional climate model is employed providing
input for the FWI system to investigate the impacts of climate change on
fire risk for two future time periods, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the
A1B emissions scenario. Days with critical fire risk are expected to
increase by as many as 50 days per year by the end of the century. |
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