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| Titel |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Leung, A. Cabré, I. Marinov |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 12, no. 19 ; Nr. 12, no. 19 (2015-10-08), S.5715-5734 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118117
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-12-5715-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Changes in Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton distributions with future
warming have the potential to significantly alter nutrient and carbon cycles
as well as higher trophic level productivity both locally and throughout the
global ocean. Here we investigate the response of SO phytoplankton
productivity and biomass to 21st century climate change across the CMIP5
Earth System Model suite. The models predict a zonally banded pattern of
phytoplankton abundance and production changes within four regions: the
subtropical (~ 30 to 40° S), transitional (~ 40 to
50° S), subpolar (~ 50 to 65° S) and Antarctic (south
of ~ 65° S) bands. We find that shifts in bottom-up variables
(nitrate, iron and light availability) drive changes in phytoplankton
abundance and production on not only interannual, but also decadal and
100-year timescales – the timescales most relevant to climate change. Spatial
patterns in the modelled mechanisms driving these biomass trends qualitatively
agree with recent observations, though longer-term records are needed to
separate the effects of climate change from those of interannual variability.
Because much past observational work has focused on understanding the effects
of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on biology, future work should attempt to
quantify the precise influence of an increasingly positive SAM on SO biology
within the CMIP5 models. Continued long-term in situ and satellite
measurements of SO biology are clearly needed to confirm model findings. |
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