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| Titel |
Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Martin Calvo, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 11, no. 21 ; Nr. 11, no. 21 (2014-11-05), S.6017-6027 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117663
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-11-6017-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types
of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains
primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However,
although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on
CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric
CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a
fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and
eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in
biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to
increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of
climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models
provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences
from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate
Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four
scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were
corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional
average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2
(185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was
in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than
that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2
(280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning
fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is
inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the
LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration
on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising
CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for
increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to
project future fire risks. |
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