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| Titel |
Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories – Part 2: Future potentials |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Yagasaki, Y. Shirato |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 11, no. 16 ; Nr. 11, no. 16 (2014-08-22), S.4443-4457 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117559
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-11-4443-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in
agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we
recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under
varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a
spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with
historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios
of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets
advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run
subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use
and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale.
A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural
fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of
conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have
a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon
sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted
agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a
relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative
reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in
another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural
activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to
agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of
conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through
abandonment.
Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting
on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and
removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during
a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be
largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based
accounting, defined as differences between the net emissions in the
accounting period and the ex ante estimation of net business-as-usual
emissions for the same period, has robustness over variations in future
climate and effectiveness to factor out some of the direct human-induced
effects such as changing land-use and agricultural activity.
Factors affecting uncertainties in the estimation of the country-scale
potential of SOC sequestration were discussed, especially those related to
estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils under different
land-use types. Our study suggested that, in order to assist decision making
of policy on agriculture, land management, and mitigation of global climate
change, it is also important to take account of duration and time course of SOC
sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as
feasibility of agricultural policy planning. |
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