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| Titel |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
| VerfasserIn |
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 11, no. 12 ; Nr. 11, no. 12 (2015-12-16), S.1673-1699 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117489
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate
reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our
understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and
change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature
reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project
and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic
external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the
consistency between model results and reconstructions for each
continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the
links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed
global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model
simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the
observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude
that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature
reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic.
This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally
forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in
a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations.
Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the
Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally
coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the
magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the
response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the
disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions,
specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer
palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. |
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