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| Titel |
Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns |
| VerfasserIn |
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, J. Kurths |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 11, no. 5 ; Nr. 11, no. 5 (2015-05-07), S.709-741 |
| Datensatznummer |
250117282
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-11-709-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate
with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of
the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate
change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms
of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel
recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced
non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems
from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon
system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating
uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models)
approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the
complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by
non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods
around 8.5–7.9, 5.7–5.0, 4.1–3.7, and 3.0–2.4 ka BP. The timing of
these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid
climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe
a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a
timing that matches the typical 1.0–1.5 ky return intervals of Bond
events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene
climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record
indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in
mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in
monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of
migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human
societies. |
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