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| Titel |
Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Latałowa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, S. Sugita |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 10, no. 2 ; Nr. 10, no. 2 (2014-03-28), S.661-680 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116944
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-10-661-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation
on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6
and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre
regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial
resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions
of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the
dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with
anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of
the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation
with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate
model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both
local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP
the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there
are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant
differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At
~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the
KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of
Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower
temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and
unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer,
deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe
because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests.
Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe
under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much
lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in
summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures.
Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from
−1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe.
The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence
on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for
the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among
climate model results. |
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