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| Titel |
Improving Arctic sea ice edge forecasts by assimilating high horizontal resolution sea ice concentration data into the US Navy's ice forecast systems |
| VerfasserIn |
P. G. Posey, E. J. Metzger, A. J. Wallcraft, D. A. Hebert, R. A. Allard, O. M. Smedstad, M. W. Phelps, F. Fetterer, J. S. Stewart, W. N. Meier, S. R. Helfrich |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2015-08-31), S.1735-1745 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116845
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-1735-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study presents the improvement in ice edge error within the US Navy's
operational sea ice forecast systems gained by assimilating high horizontal
resolution satellite-derived ice concentration products. Since the late
1980's, the ice forecast systems have assimilated near real-time sea ice
concentration derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
(DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI and then SSMIS). The resolution
of the satellite-derived product was approximately the same as the previous
operational ice forecast system (25 km). As the sea ice forecast model
resolution increased over time, the need for higher horizontal resolution
observational data grew. In 2013, a new Navy sea ice forecast system (Arctic
Cap Nowcast/Forecast System – ACNFS) went into operations with a horizontal
resolution of ~ 3.5 km at the North Pole. A method of blending
ice concentration observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning
Radiometer (AMSR2) along with a sea ice mask produced by the National Ice
Center (NIC) has been developed, resulting in an ice concentration product
with very high spatial resolution. In this study, ACNFS was initialized with
this newly developed high resolution blended ice concentration product. The
daily ice edge locations from model hindcast simulations were compared
against independent observed ice edge locations. ACNFS initialized using the
high resolution blended ice concentration data product decreased predicted
ice edge location error compared to the operational system that only
assimilated SSMIS data. A second evaluation assimilating the new blended sea
ice concentration product into the pre-operational Navy Global Ocean
Forecast System 3.1 also showed a substantial improvement in ice edge
location over a system using the SSMIS sea ice concentration product alone.
This paper describes the technique used to create the blended sea ice
concentration product and the significant improvements in ice edge
forecasting in both of the Navy's sea ice forecasting systems. |
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