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| Titel |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
| VerfasserIn |
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, D. G. Vaughan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2015-08-18), S.1579-1600 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116835
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and
three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding
line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the
response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close
to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric
ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in
accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed
by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios,
to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves
over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is
dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and
mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume
above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute
grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream,
but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen
Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest
single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites
Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
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