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| Titel |
Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya |
| VerfasserIn |
J. M. Shea, W. W. Immerzeel, P. Wagnon, C. Vincent, S. Bajracharya |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2015-05-27), S.1105-1128 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116804
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model
to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to
climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived
from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station
observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The
model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier
mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the
end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected
debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based
observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed
observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961
and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is
−6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original
estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and
2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20%
from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate
change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from
warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble
results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through
the 21st century. |
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