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| Titel |
Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, G. E. Liston |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 2 ; Nr. 9, no. 2 (2015-04-17), S.719-735 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116780
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-719-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is
determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal
scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling
procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of
present and future ground temperatures at 10 m resolution for a 4 km long
transect across the lower Zackenberg valley in northeast Greenland. The results are
based on stepwise downscaling of future projections derived from general
circulation model using observational data, snow redistribution modeling, remote
sensing data and a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ measurements
of thaw depths at two CALM sites and near-surface ground temperatures at 17
sites suggests agreement within 0.10 m for the maximum thaw depth and
1 °C for annual average ground temperature. Until 2100, modeled
ground temperatures at 10 m depth warm by about 5 °C and the active
layer thickness increases by about 30%, in conjunction with a warming of
average near-surface summer soil temperatures by 2 °C. While ground
temperatures at 10 m depth remain below 0 °C until 2100 in all model
grid cells, positive annual average temperatures are modeled at 1 m depth
for a few years and grid cells at the end of this century. The ensemble of
all 10 m model grid cells highlights the significant spatial
variability of the ground thermal regime which is not accessible in
traditional coarse-scale modeling approaches. |
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