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| Titel |
An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves |
| VerfasserIn |
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, M. Wild |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 8, no. 7 ; Nr. 8, no. 7 (2015-07-29), S.2285-2298 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116465
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-8-2285-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate
extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large
combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the
NOAH land-surface scheme, with the goal of detecting the most sensitive
physics and identifying those that appear most suitable for simulating the
heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. In total, 55 out of 216
simulations combining different atmospheric physical schemes have a
temperature bias smaller than 1 °C during the heat wave episodes, the
majority of simulations showing a cold bias of on average 2–3 °C.
Conversely, precipitation is mostly overestimated prior to heat waves, and
shortwave radiation is slightly overestimated. Convection is found to be
the most sensitive atmospheric physical process impacting simulated heat
wave temperature across four different convection schemes in the simulation
ensemble. Based on these comparisons, we design a reduced ensemble of five
well performing and diverse scheme configurations, which may be used in the
future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of
climate change during summer in Europe. |
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