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| Titel |
ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Ran, D. H. Loughlin, D. Yang, Z. Adelman, B. H. Baek, C. G. Nolte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6 (2015-06-17), S.1775-1787 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116408
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-8-1775-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air
pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We
present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating
future-year non-power sector emissions to account for projected population
and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census division-level emission
growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors
for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county
level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level
growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to
the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population
and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected
county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality
model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with
projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects
of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results
suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without
considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core
and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to
improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that
it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of
alternative energy, population and land use scenarios. |
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