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| Titel |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
| VerfasserIn |
U. Löptien, L. Axell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6 (2014-12-23), S.2409-2418 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116397
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in
a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice
conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic
considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly
provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties
that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult
to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative
importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc.
The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing
the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system
(AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that,
despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful
to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely,
62–67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the
forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This
statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during
the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship
speed. |
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