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| Titel |
Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009 |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Banzhaf, M. Schaap, R. Kranenburg, A. M. M. Manders, A. J. Segers, A. J. H. Visschedijk, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, J. J. P. Kuenen, E. Meijgaard, L. H. Ulft, J. Cofala, P. J. H. Builtjes |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2015-04-13), S.1047-1070 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116277
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-8-1047-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport
model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation – EURopean Operational Smog)
to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear
responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary
inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The
20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological
data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at
European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model
evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data,
stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual
screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model
was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability
of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown
that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all
considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of
emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the
observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s,
while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of
non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009.
Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed
trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are
lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations.
The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes.
Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation
efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The
exercise has revealed a 20–50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009
compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per
unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the
non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the
model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen
dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it
overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover,
model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used
in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial
distribution. |
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