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| Titel |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Eisenman, W. N. Meier, J. R. Norris |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2014-07-22), S.1289-1296 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116248
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-8-1289-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at
a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the
rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s,
with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic
sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically
indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the
reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change
in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the
widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in
the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the
intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was
reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend.
Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change
introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends
suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the
version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have
relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the
sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore,
a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the
observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this
analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious
artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations. |
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