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| Titel |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
| VerfasserIn |
P. J. Hezel, T. Fichefet, F. Massonnet |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2014-07-11), S.1195-1204 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116242
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-8-1195-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that
participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)
show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the
highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways
(RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to
seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were
completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time
evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the
summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum
following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all nine models.
RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline after
the forcing stabilizes due to continued warming on longer timescales.
Based on the analysis of these two scenarios, we suggest
that Arctic summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when
radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to
decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free
conditions in seven of nine models. The ensemble of simulations completed
under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature
increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and the
reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent. |
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