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| Titel |
Multi-model ensemble: technique and validation |
| VerfasserIn |
J. R. Rozante, D. S. Moreira, R. C. M. Godoy, A. A. Fernandes |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 5 ; Nr. 7, no. 5 (2014-10-14), S.2333-2343 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115736
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-2333-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, a method of numerical weather prediction by ensemble for the
South American region is proposed. This method takes into account
combinations of the numerical predictions of various models, assigning
greater weight to models that exhibit the best performance. Nine operational
numerical models were used to perform this study. The main objective of the
study is to obtain a weather forecasting product (short-to-medium range)
that combines what is best in each of the nine models used in the study,
thus producing more reliable predictions. The proposed method was evaluated
during austral summer (December 2012, and January and February 2013) and
winter (June, July and August 2013). The results show that the proposed
method can significantly improve the results provided by the numerical
models and consequently has promising potential for operational
applications in any weather forecasting center. |
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