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| Titel |
PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, P. H. Garthwaite, K. Fraedrich, F. Lunkeit, E. Kirk, M. Labriet, A. Kanudia, F. Babonneau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 7, no. 1 ; Nr. 7, no. 1 (2014-02-26), S.433-451 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115551
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-7-433-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental
policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To
capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires
interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible
with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension
reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here
with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient
numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial
patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in
order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member
ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution)
seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2
concentration and non-CO2 radiative forcing scenario. We present the
PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble
of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology
to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the
simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator
(with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application
to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. |
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