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| Titel |
Long-run evolution of the global economy – Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth |
| VerfasserIn |
T. J. Garrett |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2015-10-13), S.673-688 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115483
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-673-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the
global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an
alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that
approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than
explicitly resolved societal dynamics. If this model is initialized with
economic data from the 1950s, it yields hindcasts for how fast global
economic production and energy consumption grew between 2000 and 2010
with skill scores > 90 % relative to a model of persistence in trends. The
model appears to attain high skill partly because there was a strong impulse
of discovery of fossil fuel energy reserves in the mid-twentieth century that
helped civilization to grow rapidly as a deterministic physical response.
Forecasting the coming century may prove more of a challenge because the
effect of the energy impulse appears to have nearly run its course.
Nonetheless, an understanding of the external forces that drive civilization
may help development of constrained futures for the coupled evolution of
civilization and climate during the Anthropocene. |
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