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| Titel |
Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Karstensen, G. P. Peters, R. M. Andrew |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2015-05-27), S.287-309 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115425
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-287-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and
trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and
climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating
from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties along
the entire causal chain. We estimate uncertainties in economic data,
multi-pollutant emission statistics, and metric parameters, and use Monte
Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how
uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from
regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the
year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission
allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon,
and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final
results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters
associated with the warming effects of CO2. Based on our assumptions,
which exclude correlations in the economic data, the uncertainty in the
economic data appears to have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the
national level in comparison to emissions and metric uncertainty. Much higher
uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that
consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain
than the corresponding production-based emissions since the largest
uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives
equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due
to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption
uncertainties in the range of ±10 to ±27 % using the Global
Temperature Potential with a 50-year time horizon, with metric uncertainties
dominating. National-level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives
due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption
emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of
±9 to ±25 %, with metric and emission uncertainties
contributing similarly. The absolute global temperature potential (AGTP) with a 50-year time horizon has much higher uncertainties, with considerable
uncertainty overlap for regions and sectors, indicating that the ranking of
countries is uncertain. |
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