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| Titel |
A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Yin, Q. Tang, X. Liu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2015-02-10), S.45-59 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115412
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-45-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, which
consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency
efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global
gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate
change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat)
in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate
data from five global climate models (GCMs) under Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through the
Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results
show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st
century without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. With the
CO2 effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase,
while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. The
uncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than the
uncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change may
benefit rice and soybean yields in high-altitude and cold regions which are
not in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields of
maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area.
Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for coping
with climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction. |
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