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| Titel |
Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Vetter, S. Huang, V. Aich, T. Yang, X. Wang, V. Krysanova, F. Hattermann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2015-01-22), S.17-43 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115411
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-17-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using
validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable
results for stakeholders. In the last 10–15 years, climate impact assessment
has been performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate
scenarios and models. However, their results are hardly comparable, and do
not allow one to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties.
Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should
be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Only a few
such studies have been available until now with the global-scale hydrological
models, and our study is intended as a step in this direction by applying the
regional-scale models. The impact assessment presented here was performed for
three river basins on three continents: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger
in Africa and the Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five
general circulation models (GCMs) and three hydrological models, HBV, SWIM and
VIC, were used. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) covering a
range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The
objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future river
discharge and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results
allow one to draw some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and
shared differently between sources in the studied basins. Robust results in
terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be
found for the Rhine basin regardless of which hydrological model or forcing
GCM is used. For the Niger River, scenarios from climate models are the
largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation,
and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow
basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to
uncertainty in the impacts, though an increase in high flows in the future is
a robust outcome ensured by all three hydrological models. |
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