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| Titel |
Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Herrington, K. Zickfeld |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 5, no. 2 ; Nr. 5, no. 2 (2014-11-24), S.409-422 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115374
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-5-409-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship
between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions, yet the robustness
of this relationship has not been tested over a broad range of cumulative
emissions and emission rates. This study explores the path dependence of the
climate and carbon cycle response using an Earth system model of
intermediate complexity forced with 24 idealized emissions scenarios across
five cumulative emission groups (1275–5275 Gt C) with varying rates of
emission. We find the century-scale climate and carbon cycle response after
cessation of emissions to be approximately independent of emission pathway
for all cumulative emission levels considered. The ratio of global mean
temperature change to cumulative emissions – referred to as the transient
climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) – is found to be
constant for cumulative emissions lower than ∼1500 Gt C but
to decline with higher cumulative emissions. The TCRE is also found to
decrease with increasing emission rate. The response of Arctic sea ice is
found to be approximately proportional to cumulative emissions, while the
response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation does not scale
linearly with cumulative emissions, as its peak response is strongly
dependent on emission rate. Ocean carbon uptake weakens with increasing
cumulative emissions, while land carbon uptake displays non-monotonic
behavior, increasing up to a cumulative emission threshold of
∼2000 Gt C and then declining. |
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